Students are unable to produce correct estimates on paper writing time.

Students are unable to produce correct estimates on paper writing time. Asked to produce an estimate with no pressure of consequences, students’ best and probable estimates were basically the same. Under half met their worst case scenario estimates. In a related study, under half hit their 99% probability estimates.rA2 In a related study, under half hit their 99% probability estimates. This is called the Planning Fallacy.rM4


  1. Greg McKeown, Essentialism: The Disciplined Pursuit of Less, First Edition (New York: Crown Business, 2014). (See notes.)

  2. Sönke Ahrens, How to Take Smart Notes: One Simple Technique to Boost Writing, Learning and Thinking: For Students, Academics and Nonfiction Book Writers (North Charleston, SC: CreateSpace, 2017). (See notes.)