Stages of insurgency.

According to CIA field manuals on insurgency, there are three main stages:rO2

  • Pre-insurgency: Groups form around specific grievances and begin growing their numbers.
  • Incipient conflict stage: These groups start building militias by acquiring weapons and training. Infiltration of police and military provides further training and intel. The populace and government risk delayed action by not realizing that initial attacks are coordinated by insurgent groups.
  • Open insurgency: The groups engage open warfare.

  1. KK Ottesen, “‘They Are Preparing for War’: An Expert on Civil Wars Discusses Where Political Extremists Are Taking This Country,” Washington Post, March 8, 2022, (See notes.)